The Ronny Deila Thread

Then focus exclusively on the league, put out second string in Europe and all cups etc?

I'd rather focus on all competitions, we know how to go the distance in the league.

 

Another glorious result yesterday, did you all enjoy that one lads?

 

Malmö players claimed it was easy!! Why should the club be expected to raise the budget. If other clubs can do it why can't we, with better players?

 

Let's say we win every game between now and Xmas, and Aberdeen only drop points against us. They would still be top. We might not be comfortably clear at any point this season, even without dropping many points ourselves. There is a gap in my opinion between Aberdeen and the others now as well, and I don't see them dropping many points this season.

 

All the evidence is that a team's probability of winning is not affected by how many wins in a row they're on. Streaks will happen at times and the probability of a streak of given length is a function of your win percentage. Of course form and mentality are important, they increase your probability of winning any given game and thus will tend, on average, to increase the frequency and length of winning runs, we all know in football that "bottling it" and mentality are real.

Let's take a thought experiment, mate. I said earlier that under most managers we tend to win about 80% of our games, giving a probability of a 5-game streak starting now of just 1/3 (0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8). Note this is not the probability of going on a 5-game run at some point this season, which is actually extremely high; it's the probability of winning all of the next 5 games, which is what og1 is demanding. Now imagine that tonight, Deila is visited by the ghost of Jock Stein and overnight wakes up a better manager, the team is better organised and has a better mentality, overnight our win percentage skyrockets to 86% (the win percentage in MON's incredible second season, which is the highest I know of). That would yield a probability of winning all of the next 5 games of 0.86*0.86*0.86*0.86*0.86=0.47.

So even if Deila magically turned into a manager as good as MON at his peak, under og1's demands we'd have a greater than 50% chance of sacking him. That's why his demands are unreasonable.

 

That's right over my head mate

 

It's easy for them to claim that after the two legs but the facts show a different story.

Once again, I'm not saying the club should have to raise the budget. There are a number of small details that went against us in the two legs v Malmo and unfortunately the small details went against us.

 

We have to assume this is what will happen. Planning for worst case scenarios is good business. Assuming that they will drop points should not be part of our thinking. We need to go on a large winning run starting now.

 

It's a real shame you have to break logic down on the page to some people who cannot see it otherwise :smiley-laughing002:

 

I'm still saying football isn't maths :smiley-laughing002:

It's still stupid to sack him if he drops points in the next 5 games, for football reasons, not mathematical

 

RR - can you demonstrate the mathematical probability of opening up a random thread on talkceltic and seeing og1 debate hilariously bad and incessantly on every 3rd post with a random poster on any given subject?

I'd guess around the 100% mark? Am I close?

 

Maths aside, my logic is that he should be sacked if we drop any points while we are behind the sheep. That is a perfectly reasonable objective for him and should be a good motivator to help him get it done. Self preservation and fear of getting the chop helped him in Amsterdam, I would say.

 

Schooled.

 

Funny that is the % of which I am vindicated as well. Everything I say is said with the best interests of our club and I am always correct. If people like you were not spending your time making excuses for us blowing the chance of a lifetime then we might have a game at the Bernabeau to look forward to instead of fighting for every point against Aberfuckingdeen.

 

You're in top form today, sir. Chapeau :smiley-laughing002:

 

Of course, it's common sense. The reason I'm using maths is because probability is the best model when you're talking about demands like og1's demand for Ronny to win all of his next 5 games.

In practice we all know the difference between showing a major improvement but maybe drawing one game because things didn't run for us on the one hand, and failing to win all 5 games because we aren't playing well on the other.

I'm with you on that, but og1 isn't asking to see improvements (like you are); he's demanding that Ronny win his next 5 games or be sacked. The probability model shows why that is just not reasonable.

 

Again sometimes you need to discoung that though. WGS second last season the demand was to win the last 8 games because he needed to, he did do it.

Football is unpredictable, sometimes you just do what you have to do.

I 100% agree that it would be a wrong move to fire him but I do agree I expect us to win the next five league matches.

What happens with the probability if you add in Cups and Europe? :icon_mrgreen:

 

^^^ exactly. We NEED to win these games. I am sick of the loser mentality on here. Our target should be to win all 38 league games. This is unlikely but it should be our target nonetheless. Dropping points is acceptable if we are in cruise control and we drop them down to complacency. When we are five points behind though it is a different story and is totally unacceptable.

If we were as strong as we should be then I doubt the sheep would be winning as much as they are. It is down to mentality, they believe they can win the league and they are motivated to the max. Our weaknesses has given them real hope when we should have this division in a stranglehold.

 

Hes just embarrassing,he even said i was obsessed with Ronny but my 61 posts on this thread to his 300 say different.

 

Who did you used to be ?