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Well done Ireland!

Discussion in 'TalkCeltic Pub' started by Callum McGregor, May 25, 2018.

Discuss Well done Ireland! in the TalkCeltic Pub area at TalkCeltic.net.

  1. Callum McGregor The Captain Gold Member

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  2. Sween

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    What side is likely to win? Is it a close call or likely to be pretty one sided?
     
  3. Callum McGregor The Captain Gold Member

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    I’ve been told it’s likely to be close, which is mental.

    First bookie I checked has yes as the clear favourite.
     
  4. StPauli1916 Gold Member Gold Member

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    Aye but Deebo doesn't know any more than the rest of us mate o_O
     
  5. Callum McGregor The Captain Gold Member

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    Wasn’t Deebo that told me. :giggle1:

    Edit: or anyone else on here
     
  6. StPauli1916 Gold Member Gold Member

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    I've just had a look on Oddschecker and you are right every bookie has "yes" as a strong favourite but when you break it down into what percentage of the vote "yes" is going to get then 50-60% is the odds on favourite. Which suggests a yes vote is expected but not by a huge amount.
     
  7. Murph-E

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    Hoping for a Yes vote. Would have been nice to be an All-Ireland vote, considering it essentially guarantees many people from the north travelling to the south for abortions if it does go through.
     
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  8. Saul Goodman Gold Member Gold Member

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    You having a cheeky fiver on No then?
     
  9. Gabriel Beidh an lá linn Gold Member

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    Yes expected to win. A lot of people put off by both campaigns. Neither have done anything to entice voters sitting on the fence.
     
  10. Murph-E

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    What has been the main criticisms of the Yes campaign?
     
  11. Gabriel Beidh an lá linn Gold Member

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    I would say from my point it has alienated and been negative toward males. It is very female oriented. I have only been exposed to leaflets in the post as I have managed to avoid any on street politicking or any media coverage/debates. I don't feel the need of others opinions and advice on this matter. I know it's trivial but it still grates on me.

    I have mostly heard from others that they have been disgusted by both campaigns. As you might expect it is those who incline toward YES that are most annoyed by their sides campaigns
     
  12. StPauli1916 Gold Member Gold Member

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    No. NO NEVER!
     
  13. Aidan O’Shea

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    Think Yes will stroll it, to be honest.
     
  14. Gabriel Beidh an lá linn Gold Member

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    It's hard to know. I think the majority will be less than the predictions. I would say 54/46 for YES
     
  15. Aidan O’Shea

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    I’ll say 62% yes.
     
  16. Gabriel Beidh an lá linn Gold Member

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    I might vote No now so my prediction is closer:67:
     
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  17. Aidan O’Shea

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    Do it!
     
  18. Bobo_ Gold Member Gold Member

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    Think it will be closer than the bookies think. The Yes vote is all over social media channels and getting plenty of celebrity endorsement, it would certainly would seem to be the choice of the majority in the 18-40 category. Think there will be a strong No vote in rural communities with older populations and that isn't being publicised to anywhere near the same degree on media/social media.
    Disclaimer: May have had a punt on No at 5's

    I don't have a vote but would be voting YES if I had
     
  19. The Thumb

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    High turnout in both rural and urban areas, being reported..
     
  20. Sween

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    I dont know much about opinion of this issue in ireland but the reason pollsters have gotten so much wrong in recent years is that they have placed too much focus on young urban opinion and social media trends. It is why they got brexit so badly wrong. As you say, there is a sizable older population that generally havent been captured well in forecasting models.

    The way the question is phrased also suggests an inherent bias, where 'yes' (positive) means you disagree with the status quo while 'no' (negative) means you support the status quo. Is that not unusual?

    For the record I would vote 'no'

    Edit: for info you get 12.5/1 on the exchange at the moment for 'no' to win. That is longer than brexit and trump odds.
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2018