The 2016 Scottish Elections Thread

Discussion in 'TalkCeltic Pub' started by Dáibhí, Mar 2, 2016.

Discuss The 2016 Scottish Elections Thread in the TalkCeltic Pub area at TalkCeltic.net.

  1. King of Kings Gold Member Gold Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2005
    Messages:
    7,289
    Likes Received:
    2,341
    Location:
    Glasgow
    Fav Celtic Player:
    boruc
    Kind if puts some of the panic in here in perspective :smiley-laughing002:

    Gonna be an interesting few months with the EU Referendum coming up. I wonder if some in the "completely autonomous" Scottish Labour could actually campaign for Scottish Independence in the event of an Out vote on Brexit.
     
  2. The Regime

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2014
    Messages:
    1,303
    Likes Received:
    132
    Location:
    G/HILL Mofo
    Fav Celtic Player:
    Eyal Berkovic
    Fav Celtic Song:
    Fields
    Do you think some Labour supporters would return home if Labour returned to their roots and offered Home Rule? That was the original plan after all.
     
  3. King of Kings Gold Member Gold Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2005
    Messages:
    7,289
    Likes Received:
    2,341
    Location:
    Glasgow
    Fav Celtic Player:
    boruc
    I suspect some would, though I get the feeling Labour are almost 'un-votable' in their current condition. the biggest stumbling block facing them seems to be that they don't have any clear/definitive beliefs and are amateurishly run.

    At least with the Conservatives in Scotland you know what you're getting - support of Unionism and Trident alongside a leader who is pretty much universally respected in Scottish politics. Likewise with the SNP (although I'm sure you'll beg to differ :smiley-laughing002:).

    With Labour though? * knows. It still seems like a collection of disjointed individuals stuck together with some red tape from times past. Home Rule would probably claw a few people back, but I would be sceptical that it would be offered in a unified enough manner to really grab people's attention.
     
  4. gunt

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2006
    Messages:
    16,669
    Likes Received:
    6
    Comedy gold
     
  5. gunt

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2006
    Messages:
    16,669
    Likes Received:
    6
    Labour has just become a word that means nothing. If you had age statistics for that 20% who voted Labour you would be shocked. There is survey evidence that a majority of them are pension age and Labour has unbelievably low support among the young (SNP have incredible stats with you - talking up in the 70%+ bracet) and poor among the middle aged. For a whole generation of adults 16-40 Labour are absolutely reviled. All they remember is Blair and decades of Tories before him. All they know is a UK which has given them nothing but Tories or Blair across 41 years 1979-2020. The younger ones and their parents cant remember the UK voting anything other than Tory or Blair.

    Basically they (RIGHTLY) have concluded the majority of the electorate who can be bothered voting in England are cockwombles who deliver Tories and Blair. As a small nation of 5 million in a * state of 64 million dominated by a 55 million English electorate who (the ones who can be arsed voting) are prob 70% Tories, Kippers or Blairites young Scots see point in staying attached to them. 55% of the English voted Tory or Kipper in 2015 FFS and you can probably add anothr 15% of Tories in Blairite clothes. England is a right wing country. England on its own has not had a majority popular vote for Labour (other than Tory Blair) in a general election since the 1960s you know. Think about that.

    There is being patient and there is being disillusion - such as staying in a * marriage with someone you dont suit for no good reason. Its misguided to remain attached out of some solidarity nonsense. Solidarity doesnt work when you neighbour is 10 times your size and your vote rarely makes any difference in outcome in general elections. That sort of solidarity just means we both get Tories. Indy by 2022 when the rapidly aging and dying NO voter population has shrunk.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 9, 2016
  6. gunt

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2006
    Messages:
    16,669
    Likes Received:
    6
    Seriously some folk are just stuck on the magic of the word 'Labour' due to being stuck in their ways and legends of the Attlee Labour govt of the 40s. They were rubbish by the late 70s when they couldnt run the sort of economy they had created. The councilors are infamous crooks and trough merchants. Few people under 45 have any good memories of Labour. Its still living off the one period it was great back 65-70 years ago. If you discount that * Tory Blair then Labour have only been in power for 11 years since 1951. The last election when England voted Labour (excluding Blair) as a majority of popular vote was 1964 or 1966 (cant remember which). To the religously Labourite, Labour are still dining out on Attlee 1945-51. This cast a spell on many living people born in the 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s. However the spinning of the legend of 'proper Labour' wore thin and (I have seen the stats). Labour are supported mainly by pensioners and people within 10 years of retiring. The young and early middle aged see the SNP as their Labour. And they want indy ASAP. Its coming and I will be very very surprised if we are still in the union in 2024. Even if not one voter changed their mind there will be a clear yes majority by then because 75% of the pensioners voted NO - about 50000 pensioners die each year and 3 out of 4 of them were NO voters last time. Not to mention adults of typical breeding age are overwhelmingly SNP and their kids will be heavily influenced by this generation that have been very politicised by indyref1. I have seen stats that have 75% of yessers in the 16-25 age group and more and more coming through to voting age each year. I dont think YES has a majority yet - pooling all the best indicators suggests 48% are probably YES now. But its coming. A 2% swing will easily happen by the demographics that are heavily in YES's favour within the next few years. I dont think it can be stopped now.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 9, 2016