Single valuable bets

Discussion in 'Beat the Bookie' started by Serbian Rebel, Aug 4, 2015.

Discuss Single valuable bets in the Beat the Bookie area at TalkCeltic.net.

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  1. Slaw

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    I said a treble just to not complicate things but it was actually a Yankee I did in the shop for a tenner total stake with a draw in the Chelsea game also.
     
  2. pop47

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    South Africa -8 1/1
     
  3. StPauli1916 Gold Member Gold Member

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    Liverpool at 4-7.
     
  4. Slaw

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    Above average confidence on Miami Dolphins +14.5 tonight just after midnight.
     
  5. Nasser

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    I'm on the under 44 I took it a few days ago but I think the Dolphins +14.5 is a better play. I took the Dolphins +19 against the Bills a few weeks ago which was just a crazy line.
     
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  6. AleLarsson

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    M.City -2.5 at 12/11

    Parma +0 at 10/11

    City with no mercy for poor editions of any teams and just feeling says it should be ok.

    Parma, well if no points selling this one is a real banger bet following recent displays + home advantage. Missings in both team so not hq

    GL fellas
     
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  7. StPauli1916 Gold Member Gold Member

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    Torquay -0.25 at 49-50. (won).
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2019
  8. StPauli1916 Gold Member Gold Member

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    Another month with a remarkably similar performance.

    August 39/55 winners 70.91%

    6.45 pts profit to 1 point stakes.

    15.63% profit on total stakes.

    Sept

    41/55 winners 74.55%

    9.15 pts profit to 1 pt stake

    11.83% profit on total stakes

    Oct

    32/43 winners 74.42%

    7.68 points profit to 1 point stakes

    21.69% profit on total stakes.
     
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  9. Nasser

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    Well done.

    Is it mainly football overs you bet? Is points system the same as the Unit system? so with the system I use say I bet Celtic to win at odds of 1.70 and I bet 1 unit my profit is 0.70 so £70 is 100 bet or £7 is a £10 bet.
     
  10. StPauli1916 Gold Member Gold Member

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    In terms of the unit stakes then yep that's it mate.

    It is a mixture of overs and just straight wins. The last two bets I had were Torquay -0.25 on the Asians and Juve last night.

    I am willing to bet up to 2 units per game though and only bet when I can change my position in play ( ie not when I am on the * in Glasgow etc).

    For instance I backed Juve last night at 2-7. However when the game was still 1-1 on 70 mins I started backing over 2.5 goals to try and cover my original stake I ended up backing over 2.5 up to consolidated odds of 1.82 so a Genoa goal would have meant stakes nearly returned. The last min penalty meant I won 2 bets on that game at 2-7 and 0.8 so I made 1.09 points on that game. Without the late penalty it would have been a 2 unit loss.

    With an overs game coming up to half time I will look at starting to back over 1.5 if it is still 0-0 meaning if it finishes with 2 goals I should have come out about even/or usually just ahead. If there are 3 second half goals I am laughing as I have both bets up.

    I sometimes also back 0-0 when I have overs then start laying it off during the first half at lower prices. By half-time I am usually in a no loss positon on the correct score but have covered my original stake on overs. Again though I would back my original feeling for goals by going over 1.5 at half-time.

    So essentially I would be in a position where 0-0 = 1 point loss
    1 goal =2 point loss
    1.5+ goals = slight profit
    2.5+ two winning bets and happy days.

    I would say my bets are usually overs bets but not always. (I'll check.)

    I have a shortlist of 2 for tomorrow. 1 overs and 1 straight win. I haven't decided yet which way to go and I am going to have a proper look at it this afternoon.

    Just checked it is about 75% overs for the original bet and 25% straight win. However the in-play bets are pretty much always for either 1 or 2 more goals depending on the stage of the game.
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2019
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  11. pop47

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    Pauli when your laying a bet off on a game in play do you use a different account /bookies or the same one.
     
  12. StPauli1916 Gold Member Gold Member

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    Generally mate all my in-play bets are on the Betfair exchange as it the easiest to use with the best liquidity. I am on the basic plan so no promotions but 2% commission on all exchange bets. Most of my bets are on Betfair but I also use Smarkets,Betdaq and Matchbook ( although the liquidity means I haven't used them for a while.) So last night my initial bet was on Smarkets but my in play bet on 70 mins was on Betfair. The night before though my initial bet (Torquay -0.25) was on Betfair and Bet 365 as I backed Torquay at 13-10 on Bet 365 and DNB on Betfair at 4-6) and as they were only winning 1-0 I laid a bit off on Betfair near the end just in case there was a late equaliser to make it a no lose game unless Wrexham got 2 very late goals)

    Exchanges don't mind you laying off as they get paid whether you win or lose and trading is all part of the market. Sometimes you can back a team earlier in the week and then lay off at the weekend prematch either locking in a profit or making it a no lose bet so in that way it is more like the stock market than betting on sport. If you can predict which way the markets will move. I don't really trade much though.

    I rarely use traditional online bookies with the exception of Bet 365. Occasionally I will use Victor Chandler. If their price is the same as Betfair as obviously with these there is no commission.
     
  13. StPauli1916 Gold Member Gold Member

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    Hoffenheim 8-15 (Friday).
     
  14. pop47

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    Cheers got that :50:

    Ive got accounts with Ladbrokes & 365 so you reckon if im going to lay my bet off i should use the one where the bet wasnt placed originally or would there be a problem if i just used the one account.
     
  15. StPauli1916 Gold Member Gold Member

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    I'd advise opening a Betfair account tbh mate.

    When you saying "laying it off" do you mean say if your team scores early then laying at a lower price to lock in a profit ? Or do you mean adjusting your position Ie switching from over 2.5 goals to over 1.5 if it is 0-0 at half-time/backing overs if your team falls behind ? TBF I have probably muddied the water there with the language I have used.

    I think you probably could adjust your position with your bookies but they can be funny about multiple bets on one game.

    The exchanges will do all the calculations for you though and a far easier to use.

    Here's an example of how you could lay off if there was an early goal in tomorrow's Championship game to lock in a profit ( Probably not something I would do tbf but illustrates how easy ( technically) it is to do on the exchanges

    In this example you back at 1.72 and then after the early goal you lay at 1.33. You could do the same by laying £50 at 1.33 which would mean you can't lose on the unders but you make £19 on overs.

    upload_2019-10-31_20-54-44.png
     
  16. pop47

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    What i mean by laying it off is bet just bout up with mins remaining say 2-1...in case of last min goal against i put a bet on an equaliser at decent odds usually...i dont think they would let me away with covering my * too often.

    Yea the exchanges sound good but bit confusing to me,need to look into them a bit more first.

    Cheer's Paul :50:
     
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  17. Nasser

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    Matchbook is good exchange as well it seems to be getting more popular so more markets getting added all the time and it has only 2% commission from winning bets instead of the 5% Betfair charges.
     
  18. StPauli1916 Gold Member Gold Member

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    That's Hoffenheim in on the 2 up inside 15 mins :50:
     
  19. StPauli1916 Gold Member Gold Member

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    Werder Bremen v Freiburg overs at 4-6.
     
  20. StPauli1916 Gold Member Gold Member

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    Chaaaaargeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!