Single valuable bets

Overs and out 30 mins

 

Dusseldorf v Freiburg overs at 7-10.

 

Overs and out

 

Koln v Hertha Berlin overs at 7-10.

 

CHHARRRGEEEEEEEEEE!

 

Overs and out

 

@StPauli1916 on some run hey.

 

I've had a cracking start to the season Smokie. Too good actually I know it isn't sustainable over the season. I have kept a record of every single bet I have had over the last couple of seasons so I know exactly how well/bad I am doing at any point to the nearest penny. I do have to work on my discipline though when I am on a losing run. Bad Paul is still capable of rearing his ugly head and kicking sensible Paul out of the way every so often.

I've actually backed over 1.5 in the Rio Ave v Porto game tonight at 2-9 but didn't bother posting it as I couldn't be bothered with getting arguments about backing at 2-9. For me it is a 1-10 shot so 2-9 is value and I have adjusted my stake accordingly.

 

Fire away with the short price bets mate it's all about value.

I've a little system going at the minute too similar to yourself. Set unit stakes, single bets only and tracking every bet I make with stakes etc. In small profit so off to a decent start.

 

In terms of stakes mate I use the Kelly Criterion

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Obviously this only works if your percentage call is better than the bookies. ( That might sound daft, however bookies will often overestimate fav's as they want to balance their books.)

I get the RFO on a Tuesday and price up the HWD, over 2.5 for every English PL-conf, Scottish SPL-3rd div,La Liga, Serie A,Bundesliaga, Ligue 1, Portuguese and Dutch top flight games before I even go on oddschecker and look at the odds. I then have a criteria that pretty quickly knocks all these games down to a shortlist.

 

chaaargeee!!!!!!!!!

 

Used to use the Kelly Criterion mate but I got too carried away and ended up placing too much on selections I was confident on and it backfired. Will probably edge back that way but im just bankroll building with set stakes now.

Whats RFO and HWD?

 

Samoa +17 vs Scotland @Evens

 

I use 5% of my bank roll and then us the Kelly Criterion so rather than 30% of my bankroll I will bet 30% of 5% of my bankroll. RFO is the Racing and Football Outlook which I get on a Tuesday and is where I get my stats from. By Tuesday night I will have a shortlist for every night Tue-Mon for the following week.

No idea what HWD is ( I was *),however I think I meant Home, Away,Draw so backing a team rather than playing the goals markets.

 

Sporting Lisbon at 8-15. (won).

 

My September stats

55 bets. 41 winners so 74.55% strike rate.

9.15 points profit to every point staked.

 

You're on a roll St P.. firm believer in momentum when it comes to betting.

Doing quite well myself despite the picks I post in here doing *

5 tonight:

-Atalanta vs Shakhtar BTTS @3/5
-Galatasaray vs PGS under 3.5 @4/7
-Juventus win vs Bayer Leverkusen @3/5
-Man City win to nil vs D Zagreb @7/10
-Lokomotiv Moscow +1 Asian handicap vs At. Madrid @4/7

 

Juventus v Leverkusen overs at 4-5.

 

Overs and Out

 

Trabzanspor v Basle overs at 10-11. ( Thursday).