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Cristiano Ronaldo accused of rape

Discussion in 'TalkCeltic Pub' started by Callum McGregor, Sep 29, 2018.

Discuss Cristiano Ronaldo accused of rape in the TalkCeltic Pub area at TalkCeltic.net.

  1. Callum McGregor The Captain Gold Member

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    What are you on about? Too quick for what?
     
  2. Spring Time Gold Member Gold Member

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    I wrote more.
     
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  3. Callum McGregor The Captain Gold Member

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    Right, so with regards to the study linked above, the percentage of rape cases deemed to be false (and I mean malicious false accusation), is still very low, thus making malicious false accusations rare.

    Even with the study that claimed that 50% of accusations were false, the person conducting the study used certain barometers on how likely a case was to be false. There is a correlation between a delay in reporting a case and the likelihood of this person seeming a case to be false. This is page 134 and it concludes that the reliability of MacLean’s data is not compelling enough evidence, due to the nature of how that study was conducted.

    The other study where close to 50% were deemed to be false are also rubbished as not being reliable, along with the sample size being incredible small. This second study offers little or no information to the circumstances around these claimed retractions, of which there could be many, thus making it difficult to quantify the validity of whether or not these retractions were the result of malicious accusations.

    Just after this it states that other police sources have the false reporting rate at 3%, while the most experienced police surgeons are most likely to give low estimates.

    A further study shows police holding pre conceived bias about how a women who was raped ‘should behave’. Anyone not behaving within this framework saw their claims scrutinised and more readily had doubt cast upon it.

    The study then goes on to highlight a “culture of disbelief” amongst police, when it comes to reporting of rape cases.
    “There is a tendency to conflate false allegations with retractions and withdrawals, as if in all such cases no sexual assault occurred”.

    Any reasonable person can see the issue with that. There are a number of levels as to why an allegation ends up being no-crimed, rather than all no-crimes allegations being malicious. This study acknowledges that the method of collecting data or methods used to determine false accusations are deeply flawed. The study even goes on to say that numbers of malicious false allegations are infinitesimal.

    So it backs up the point of the failure of reliable data gathering and reporting methods, but it highlights the inefficiency and sub-standard practice of police in how they determine no-crime cases based on highly questionable assumptions. It concludes that there has been an analytical failure in information gathering, which I totally agree with, but the strongest evidence points towards a higher likelihood of malicious false accusations being rare.
     
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  4. Callum McGregor The Captain Gold Member

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    Depends on the result of the investigation that’s been opened, once it’s eventually released.
     
  5. Spring Time Gold Member Gold Member

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    So the Lack of reliable data still leads you to think it’s rare?
     
  6. Callum McGregor The Captain Gold Member

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    No. The fact that it’s rare makes me think it’s rare. Unsurprisingly, the least reliable data appears to have originated from the studies with the highest estimates.
     
  7. Spring Time Gold Member Gold Member

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    You’re * stubborn.

    The data you were trusting earlier was 5.9%. That’s not * rare however you dress it up. That’s 6 out of every hundred.
     
  8. Callum McGregor The Captain Gold Member

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    5.9%, if accurate, is rare.
     
  9. Onefootwonder

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    Since when is 6 out of every 100 rare?

    Different people use different figures to define rare, but it's usually less that 0.1%.

    6% falls into the common bracket.
     
  10. Callum McGregor The Captain Gold Member

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    It’s rare when the other 94% (an overwhelming majority by anyone’s standards) aren’t.
     
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  11. Marie Bookmaker

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    0.1% is considered negligible not rare.
     
  12. Marie Bookmaker

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    Ignore that.....that's rare apparently.
     
  13. Spring Time Gold Member Gold Member

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    It’s not rare!!!!!

    Term Numerical rate Percentage rate
    Very common More than 1 in 10 10% or higher
    Common 1 in 10 – 1 in 100 10% – 1%
    Uncommon 1 in 100 – 1 in 1000 0.1% to 1%
    Rare 1 in 1000 – 1 in 10,000 0.01% to 0.1%
    Very rare Less than 1 in 10,000 Less than 0.01%

    You are just being stubborn.

    If we locked up 6 out of every 100 people wrongly is that rare.

    If the doctor diagnosed terminal illness wrongly to 6 out of 100 people he would get sacked.
     
  14. Callum McGregor The Captain Gold Member

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    It is rare. That info you share is opinion, not fact. Especially when you take into account the total number of rape cases.

    I doubt it’s even as high as that anyway. Especially considering men are more likely to be raped than be falsely accused.

    “According to the most reliable data we have, the average * man in England and Wales aged 16 to 59 has a 0.03 per cent chance of being raped over the course of a year (based on 2016-17 figures).

    The best data we have — the number of people prosecuted for making false allegations — suggests that the average * man in England and Wales has a 0.00021281 per cent chance of being falsely accused of rape in a year. (That’s based on 35 prosecutions for false rape allegations in 2011 compared to 16.5 million men aged 16 to 59 living in England and Wales at the time).”
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2018
  15. Onefootwonder

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    How is your opinion of rare more factual than other opinions?

    Find me another instance where 6% occurrence is deemed rare?

    You wouldn't call a Vauxhall Corsa a rare car for example? The overwhelming majority of cars aren't Vauxhall Corsa, but they are still common.
     
  16. Callum McGregor The Captain Gold Member

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    When you take into account the number of rape cases, beside the number of malicious false allegations, then it is rare, if it is even as high as that.

    A football player who scored 6% of his shots, would make his goals rare.

    Worldwide, corsas are rare. It isn’t a very good analogy because there are many types of cars, while malicious false accusations are invariably similar.
     
  17. Spring Time Gold Member Gold Member

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    What the * you on about now???
    6 out of 100 is what you were calling rare.

    The EMA (the European drug regulatory agency) has very specific definitions for words relating to frequency of side effects.

    This is a good question because the words are often used wrongly.

    This is shown in the table below: ie

    • Very common affects more than 1 in 10 people – ie the risk is 10% or higher
    • Common affects between 1 in 100 and 1 in 10 people – ie risk is 1% to 10%
    • Uncommon affects between 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 100 people – ie risk is 0.1% to 1%
    • Rare affects between 1 in 10,000 and 1 in 1,000 people – ie risk is 0.01% to 0.1%
    • Very rare affects less than 1 in 10,000 people – ie risk is less than 0.01% (This includes isolated reports, or where the absolute risk is not known or can’t be quantified. For example, if identified through post-marketing safety surveillance and the frequency cannot be estimated from the available data).

    The European drug regulatory agency is where I got that definition from.

    You keep digging your big hole mate.
     
  18. Zander Gold Member Gold Member

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    Wow, this argument :56:

    tell ye whars rare, a shiny charizard
     
  19. Spring Time Gold Member Gold Member

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    Not really an argument is it. No one really thinks 6% is rare.
    He just backed himself into a corner & just needs to admit it.
     
  20. Onefootwonder

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    A hypothetical example of a footballer only scoring with 6% of his shots doesn't answer the question you were asked.

    I'll ask again, who else defines 6% as a rare occurrence?

    The problem again is all the rape figures make a lot of assumptions. They are assuming so many people have been raped or assaulted and not come forward.

    On the false claims they usually need to be proven. It's not a fair comparison.

    The more rapes there are the more false claims. It's a percentage of 6% so they go hand in hand.


    According to police Scotland the crime rate for Glasgow is 717 per 10,000 people, or 7.17%.

    Would you say crime in Glasgow is rare?
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2018